San Francisco Condos, June 2026: Still a Seller's Market (and Still a Little Dramatic)

If you remember one number this month, make it this: San Francisco condos are sitting at about 2.3 months of supply. That's the absorption rate — how long it would take to sell every condo currently listed if nothing new came on the market and buyers kept shopping at today's pace. Anything under about four months tips into seller's-market territory, so at 2.3 months we're not just in it, we're comfortably parked there.

The number has barely moved from last month, which was also around 2.3 months — so think "holding steady," not "big swing." The real drama is the year-over-year change: a year ago we were closer to 4.4 months, which was a buyer's market. In twelve months we've basically flipped the whole thing on its head. (One honest note: I'm using the citywide condo figure here because a clean Downtown-only months-of-supply number wasn't published this month. I'd rather tell you that than make one up.)

Downtown: where my towers live

Yerba Buena, South Beach, and SoMa are still the heart of the high-rise and penthouse market, and they're moving. The SoMa/Mission Bay corridor — anchored by Chase Center and the UCSF campus — remains the most-watched walkable condo stretch, with median condo prices around $1.25 million and new construction still delivering units into the neighborhood. Buyers who spent the last couple of years waiting for a deal are discovering that everyone else had the same idea at the same time.

What's driving decisions right now

Two things, mostly: thin inventory and mortgage rates. There simply aren't many condos to choose from — citywide condo inventory was down roughly 34% year-over-year heading into spring — so when a good one lists, it gets attention fast. On the financing side, rates have settled enough that buyers who were frozen are starting to move.

The key indicators

The median condo sale price came in around $1.38 million in April, up about 17.5% year-over-year. Condos are selling in roughly 13–14 days — down from around four weeks a year ago — and going for about 7% over asking. The 30-year fixed mortgage is hovering near 6.5% (Freddie Mac put it at 6.53% on May 28), down from about 6.89% a year ago.

The tech and AI angle

AI tenants pushed SF office leasing to a six-year high, and pending home sales jumped about 17% year-over-year — fastest among major U.S. metros. But the jobs picture is murkier: the information sector actually shed around 4,500 jobs, because much of the AI money is going into data centers and chips rather than headcount. So yes, AI is part of the demand story — just not single-handedly carrying the market.

Bottom line: tight supply, fast sales, rising prices, and a downtown that's quietly having a moment. If you've been waiting for a sign, 2.3 months of supply is about as clear as this market gets.

Sources: thefrontsteps SF Market Update (Apr 2026); Legacy SF Homes (Mar 2026); Compass / Bay Area Market Reports; Freddie Mac PMMS (May 28, 2026); Bankrate (May 26, 2026); SF Standard (Jan 2026); Mission Local (May 2026); SF Examiner.